Project Management

December 12, 2008

Detroit Needs to Move out of WWII

The following was a response to Ryan Kreuger's comment on Minyanville, in which he wondered why it was going to take Detroit two years to retool a factory, when Honda can switch a factory from production of one model to another in a matter of days:

Just read your buzz and note that you are one of the few I’ve read in the financial press that has come close to addressing the core issue of what ails Detroit.

The US auto business, like many of our “old industry” derived much of their organizational structure and approach from the practices that were forced on them during WWII.  During that conflict we learned the lesson of keeping things simple and uniform.  That was the key to the previously unimaginable level of productivity we achieved during that conflict.  By building purpose-specific factories to manufacture aircraft, tanks, trucks and guns  whose designs rarely ever changed, we were able to build more of them more quickly and efficiently than anybody had before or has since.

There was no need to be flexible.  Maximum production was the goal.  We overwhelmed the capabilities of our enemies whose factories made changes (how many versions of Tiger tank did the Germans make???), whose products improved but became less and less maintainable due to differences between versions and whose workforces were necessarily more flexible and capable in many ways, but who were less focused.

The kind of operation that we ran here during the war works well when the customer’s goal is to build as many as possible as quickly and efficiently as possible, when there is no competitive supplier, when product improvements are deemed to be an unaffordable luxury even if the cost is in actual lives  (a decision that was made with the Sherman tank, for example), and when the factory is always operating at 100% capacity because the customer has agreed to purchase everything you can produce.  In the real world of business, those are unusual circumstances, but virtually all of US big industry and labor was reorganized around them during the WWII and early cold war years.  Many of them have still never abandoned those principles.

There was no need for workers' skills to be varied or for ongoing training because they too could be far more efficient doing the exact same things thousands of times than by learning new skills regularly.  We developed labor structures and rigid work rules to protect those “specialized” workers who were possibly the most efficient in the world at their specific tasks despite being some of the highest paid, yet who were clearly also the least capable of going out and finding a job doing anything else.

This overall focus on the benefit of maximum steady-state efficiency came to dominate the practices of the largest purchaser of goods and services – The US Government -- and thus has been injected relentlessly into the workings of every major government supplier.  Ever seen the paperwork needed to become a government supplier?  It’s all about doing all those things that worked so well at generating efficiencies when we were building an aircraft an hour (at Ford’s Willow Run plant that built B-24s) but that impose unbearable costs when the manufacturing needs to be flexible and adaptive to market changes.  State and Federal rules, along with union agreements, further institutionalized those practices.  To a large degree, remaining the only untouched industrial power emerging from WWII also left us as the only country in the world that was not free to start anew.

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August 10, 2008

Something A Little Different

I've been a bit sick for better than a week, trying to work through it. I find that as I get older, some of my youthful abilities, including the ability to keep a completely clear head and work through illness, are diminished. Unfortunately, even this heavy cold/light flu or whatever it is has impaired me sufficiently that I can't do much

Not only that, but I'm unable to get out an exercise. As those who know me well realize, I'm not much of a "stay indoors" kind of person. Even when I work, I try to find the excuses to get out as much as possible. I once described "my ideal work environent" to a career coach as "a place where the windows aren't welded shut and I can actually feel the breeze everyday." Needless to say, that coaching session didn't go much of anywhere.

So, here I am inside. Though obviously with all the windows open and a nice breeze.

Thankfully, I've been sleeping more than usual, which kills some of the time, but otherwise the frustration about everything has been building, as is probably obvious in my last post. I'm feeling a little better today, but don't want to push it, so I'm giving myself one more to recuperate. I have another job discussion tomorrow afternoon, so want to be in good shape for it, even though it's on the phone.

There have been some other frustrations recently. Seriously blew a job interview last Monday. In part, I suspect, because I was already beginning to crash and didn't quite realize it. In part though it's because the IT world has changed and I'm just not a great fit for it anymore. For better or worse, "traditional" IT has become more and more focused on controls rather than on innovation and serious business improvement. I'm a notorious "break all the rules to meet the strategic objectives" guy, so those kinds of roles don't work very well for me, even if I could get somebody to hire me for one of them, which I doubt. My resume is too long a history of "damn the torpedoes, full speed ahead" kind of stuff.

While it was all successful, it's not the kind of stuff that gives me much to say to anybody when asked what methodology, or approach, or other management mumbo-jumbo I favor. I try to answer truthfully: I know lots of ways to get things done. I try to always pick the one that's most appropriate for the circumstances. "Situational Project Management" as I call it. I try to make it sounds better than "I figure out how to deliver and if I leave flattened bodies in my wake, then it's too bad they got in the way," but I don't think I convince anybody that I'm a good fit for most of todays Sarb-Oxed, control-freaked IT environments.

The innovations that are happenning in technology tend to be in areas related to media, which I have almost no understanding of and frankly no interest in. (The little media I actually see tends to be the CNBC stuff I watch during the day, usually with the sound off, mostly because I like having some material to use when making fun of Cramer and friends in this space.)

So I find myself thinking that it's really time to do something different. The question, as always, is "what?"

Certainly, moving out of media-town may be a good idea. And I'm certainly looking elsewhere.

But as noted above, my brain just doesn't do quite as well at certain things as it did when I was younger. Even if I found a cool company that wasn't media related, was doing some interesting stuff with IT, and I could figure out what in the world I might do for them, I'm just not sure I'm up to the task of doing it. And I'm sure that my interest level is at or close to zero. In large part, because I find that most of the energy going into technology at most companies is completely wasted.

Continue reading "Something A Little Different" »

July 01, 2008

The De-Financialization of Everything

For the past 25 years, the trend in the world's economy has been to financilization of everything. It doesn't matter what business you have been in, some form of securitization, new financial products, hedging, derivatives, financing, or other financial intermediation has been part of your world. Those of us who actually like to create stuff have been playing second-fiddle to those whose game has been moving the financial blocks around, slicing and dicing them beyond recognition, repackaging them into incomprehensible forms, and then trying to sell them back to us.

A Financialization Orgy

That world hit incredible heights. General Motors (NYSE:GM) and Ford (NYSE:F) have become shells of their former selves, making most of their money from financing. Automobile manufacturing has become practically a sideline, something they needed to do in order to have something to finance. Even General Electric (NYSE:GE) has become much the same kind of company, slowly shedding low-profitablilty manufacturing divisions, while securing the rights to provide financing to purchasers of the products that are manufactured by others yet still bear their name. Jack Welch's success wasn't so much in making GE's manufacturing divisions better as it was in making them less relevant to GE's financial results, depending more and more on easily game-able financial business results. (Jack Welch's greatest genius may have been realizing when it was time to get out with his money intact. His jumping off the financialization train was -- in retrospect -- an early signal that it was about to run off a cliff.)

Even small companies with little financial sophistication were caught up in this. As Kevin Depew pointed out in December, little CKE Restaurants (NYSE:CKR) got caught flat-footed in a bad interest rate swap deal. Why an interest rate swap made any sense for a company in the business of operating fast-food restaurants is not clear to this relatively sophisticated investor. Hedging food costs? Maybe. But interest rate swaps? Most likely it made no sense to anybody other than the bankers who sold the deal and the auditors who were paid to tell management that it was a valid use of shareholder money. (Hint to all managers of small companies: Remember the poker axiom that if you can't see the sucker at the table, it's probably you. If you're sitting at the table with a bunch of investment bankers whose job is to create financial products, each of whom makes more in a year than the top ten earners in your company, then odds are you are the sucker.)

Most of us have been suckers. It's just taken a couple of decades for the final cards to be dealt and the reality of things to kick in.

Continue reading "The De-Financialization of Everything" »

February 09, 2008

How to Fail at Organizing a Meeting

I’m currently sitting in a meeting for the local chapter of a sizable professional organization. The fact that I’m writing this probably suggests to you that I’m not all that excited about what’s going on. The reason is that despite being a supposed professional organization that as part of it’s “agenda” promotes good management, communications, and other process, nobody in this group has ever put together a good quality meeting in their lives.

Look at the agenda:

  • 8:30 – 8:45: “Warm up”
  • 8:45 – 8:50: Opening, welcome and introductions
  • 8:50 – 9:00: Meeting agenda and organization
  • 9:00 – 9:55: Department introductions, 6-8 minutes each
  • 9:55 – 10:00: Team formation
  • 10:00 – 10:10: Break
  • 10:10 – 11:00: Breakout Sessions
  • 11:00 – 11:10: Closing

What do you think is wrong?

Well, let’s start with the obvious. What is the purpose of this meeting? Can you even divine this from the agenda?

OK, I’ll clue you in. The purpose was to get volunteers involved in the organization and assigned to specific responsibilities.

Can you see on the agenda where this would come across?

Can you see how this agenda drives towards that ultimate purpose?

Neither can I.

And not surprisingly, the meeting is wasting a lot of time and heading towards being a complete failure.

Here’s my agenda, should anybody ever ask me for one:

Purpose: To introduce volunteers to the organization and allow them to select an appropriate volunteer opportunity.

Homework: Review the attached powerpoint describing each of the departments, it’s functions and its volunteer needs. Please complete this before the meeting as we will not have time for review.

Schedule:

  • 8:30 – 9:00: Bagels and coffee.
  • 9:00 – 9:05: Welcome and quick agenda overview
  • 9:05 – 9:20: Quick intro of each department's needs by the director, 1-2 minutes each. (Reminder, we expect you to have reviewed the background information provided in advance for details.)
  • 9:20 – 9:30: Break
  • 9:30 - -10:10: Department roundtable #1, select one of the departments you may be interested in volunteering for and speak with the director about opportunities in a small group setting. Identify opportunities and fit.
  • 10:10 - 10:15: Quick break and reorganize
  • 10:15 – 10:55: Department roundtable #2, same as the first roundtable, in a second department.
  • 10:55 – 11:00: Closure and review next steps/action items

Action Items::

  • Directors to follow up with volunteers to confirm choices and assignments.
  • Additional action items to be agreed to between directors and volunteers.
  • Other items resulting from meeting

Next steps: Be prepared to present final teams, assignments and expectations at next board meeting on [date]...

[Off topic. I am now listening to one regularly self-interested participant who has hijacked the meeting to discuss his pet topics. Nobody is telling him: “not on the agenda, we need to table this, shut up.” But running meetings is a topic for another day.]

Why is my agenda better?

Continue reading "How to Fail at Organizing a Meeting" »

December 11, 2007

The Employment View from My Window

For the past year or so, I've found that the number of companies looking for contract employees and consulting services has dropped off significantly compared to the number that wanted to hire me to full time project management positions.

Recently, I've noticed this has reversed.

Typically, this is a sign of reduced willingness to commit to hiring, and perhaps a weaker employment market.

Obviously, I'm just a very small sliver of overall employment, and a fairly high-end one as well. I'll be following up with a few recruiters I know to try to get a better understanding of what's going on a bit further beneath the surface.

-btc

August 16, 2007

Bye Chuck!

Just put in a wire request at Charles Schwab (NasdaqGS:SCHW), where I've had the bulk of my money. The request was to transfer out about half my cash, or a third of the account value. It's going to my E*Trade (NasdaqGS:ETFC)account, which has always been smaller and a place where I've tended to keep long-term investments that I don't look at much.

As a project manager, I tolerate a lot. Fuck ups are part of the territory.

But I don't tolerate incompetence, especially not in mission critical stuff.

So when Charles Schwab exhibited extreme incompetence this morning, it was the last straw. I've been increasingly uneasy for the past several weeks and with even money funds turning out to own all sorts of mortgage junk, I've felt like maybe splitting my money between institutions was a good idea. And Schwab's trading interface has gotten increasingly clunky compared to newer competition.

Continue reading "Bye Chuck!" »

August 14, 2007

Poor Quality Management Comes Home To Roost

No, I'm not talking about the financial markets. I'm talking about the toy market. The cat food market. And overall the market for offshore outsourcing.

And more than anything else, what I'm seeing is a lack of proper management of risk and quality in these big offshore deals.

Historically, outsourcing has been pretty easy. You made a deal with a contract manufacturer and the contract manufacturer, among other things, made sure that the product met all applicable standards: your own and the legal ones for the market you're selling into. You thus have been able to outsource not only the manufacturing, but also much of the quality control. Whether the manufacturer was in the US, Mexico or anyplace else, you had real leverage to insist on those standards being met. If they weren't, the contract manufacturer ate the costs.

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August 09, 2007

Dropping Delta

I've been a Delta frequent flyer for several years because their route map suits me, but I've just dropped them, perhaps with the exception of my occasional trips to Utah. The primary reason is their antiquated and disastrous Terminal 2/3 complex at JFK, which has devolved into something reminiscent of a third world travel experience. It was inadequate 20 years ago, has gotten worse since 9/11, and now has gotten even crazier with many domestic departures going out of terminal 2, but all check-in at terminal 3 (the old Pan Am terminal) which has completely inadequate space, and forces you into going all the way around the perimeter of the place just to get over to the walkway to the terminal you're actually departing from!

Unortunately, the City of New York, in it's great wisdom, has decided that certain airline terminals deserve to be considered historic landmarks. The old TWA terminal, designed by Eero Saarinen is one of these buildings. It's completely useless for any kind of modern aviation, but there it sits, unused. It has been surrounded on one side by the new concrete superstructure of the AirTrain. On the other side, it has been cut off from the tarmac, it's satellite gate areas knocked down, and the long spindly corridors that used to connect to them now suspended in mid-air, terminating at the edge of a new roadway which will access a replacement terminal.

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June 21, 2007

MythBusters Jumps the Shark

Up in Utah where I spend as much of my winters as I can, I'm friendly with a dog named Midas. Midas is the senior avalanche dog on the Snowbird Ski Patrol, and also one of the most experienced dog/volunteers of Wasatch Backcountry Rescue. I've done some avalanche training at Snowbird and seen Midas in action. In his career he's been responsible for at least a couple of successful rescues that I know about. During the 2005-2006 ski season, which was the most deadly on record for the Utah backcountry, Midas was responsible for recovering many of the victims.

I was thinking about Midas last night as I watched MythBusters clumsily go about "busting" all sorts of myths about avalanches. I have been a fan of MythBusters since it started airing several years ago and have generally found it to be pretty well put together, if not always completely thorough.

Until last night, that is.

Last night's episode was so badly done that it makes me doubt I can ever take them seriously again. For me, it was one of those "jump the shark" moments, in which a show goes from being good, to being one that is coasting on its past glory, trying desperately to be as cool as it once was but unable to because it has exhausted all real possibilities.

There were so many things wrong with the experiment it's not even funny.

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May 28, 2007

Start Where You Stand

I've been cleaning out the garage this weekend. In the past few months I've replaced a car, purchased a new mountain bike, moved all my old wine (some of which is sadly over the hill) out of storage and back home where it can be drunk, and worked on a number of small projects that have caused me to accumulate a lot of junk. Since my garage and my office are really one space with a half-wall and some bookcases between them, this has gotten quite annoying.

As with any major cleanup effort, it started with total destruction. Move everything off the shelves, move everything out of the closet space under the stairs, move everything that isn't delicate or a book off the bookcases, and leave a pile on the floor.

Then what do you do?

With many business problems, it's tough to figure out where to start. Prioritizing the tasks, the items, and the junk seems almost impossible. Some of the stuff is important, some isn't, some takes consideration, and some will need to be put away in a location to be determined. If you try to think about it too much, you end up like my "buddy" Casey Serin: overwhelmed with the choices and unable to get anything going.

Readers of this blog know that I have some training in wilderness emergency medicine, search and rescue and general emergency response. All of these have a simple approach to dealing with an overwhelming situation that is equally useful when cleaning a garage or deciding what to do next in a highly-stressful business situaiton.

Start where you stand.

There's really no better solution. If you're dealing with 100 wounded people all around you, you have no way to know who needs the most critical care without looking at every one of them. There's no way to guess, no way to know until you check each one. If you start anywhere other than just where you are, you'll just waste time and won't (on average) do any better at getting to the most critical folks first. So you start where you stand. Assess the situation, give everybody a quick once-over (triage) and then, as needed, go back.

That's how I approach business situations. Focus on the next thing in front of you. Get it done or at least take a good enough look to assess how critical it is. Then on to the next item. Do it carefully, systematically, and ensure that you do go back to the things you decided could be skipped right away. It doesn't matter if I'm figuring out a project plan, considering my next trade, or assessing any other problem, you've got to start somewhere and there's usually very little point in debating the starting point.

That's how I started the garage. With one screwdriver on the floor next to me. I put it into a drawer in the tool chest. Yes, I may need to reorganize the tool chest later, but that could wait. Then some antenna wire on the floor. Put it into a garbage pile. Next item, and next.

Right now, I have much of the big work done, a large garbage pile and a couple of smaller piles to be sorted through with greater attention and consideration. Those will be done by the end of today. I'll still have to re-organize some of the shelves as well as the afformentioned tool chest, but those are seperate smaller projects. Everything that needs to be on the shelves is, and all the tools are nicely put away.

And all because I decided to start, not debate. And for lack of any better idea, I started where I stood.

-btc