General Commentary

December 12, 2008

Detroit Needs to Move out of WWII

The following was a response to Ryan Kreuger's comment on Minyanville, in which he wondered why it was going to take Detroit two years to retool a factory, when Honda can switch a factory from production of one model to another in a matter of days:

Just read your buzz and note that you are one of the few I’ve read in the financial press that has come close to addressing the core issue of what ails Detroit.

The US auto business, like many of our “old industry” derived much of their organizational structure and approach from the practices that were forced on them during WWII.  During that conflict we learned the lesson of keeping things simple and uniform.  That was the key to the previously unimaginable level of productivity we achieved during that conflict.  By building purpose-specific factories to manufacture aircraft, tanks, trucks and guns  whose designs rarely ever changed, we were able to build more of them more quickly and efficiently than anybody had before or has since.

There was no need to be flexible.  Maximum production was the goal.  We overwhelmed the capabilities of our enemies whose factories made changes (how many versions of Tiger tank did the Germans make???), whose products improved but became less and less maintainable due to differences between versions and whose workforces were necessarily more flexible and capable in many ways, but who were less focused.

The kind of operation that we ran here during the war works well when the customer’s goal is to build as many as possible as quickly and efficiently as possible, when there is no competitive supplier, when product improvements are deemed to be an unaffordable luxury even if the cost is in actual lives  (a decision that was made with the Sherman tank, for example), and when the factory is always operating at 100% capacity because the customer has agreed to purchase everything you can produce.  In the real world of business, those are unusual circumstances, but virtually all of US big industry and labor was reorganized around them during the WWII and early cold war years.  Many of them have still never abandoned those principles.

There was no need for workers' skills to be varied or for ongoing training because they too could be far more efficient doing the exact same things thousands of times than by learning new skills regularly.  We developed labor structures and rigid work rules to protect those “specialized” workers who were possibly the most efficient in the world at their specific tasks despite being some of the highest paid, yet who were clearly also the least capable of going out and finding a job doing anything else.

This overall focus on the benefit of maximum steady-state efficiency came to dominate the practices of the largest purchaser of goods and services – The US Government -- and thus has been injected relentlessly into the workings of every major government supplier.  Ever seen the paperwork needed to become a government supplier?  It’s all about doing all those things that worked so well at generating efficiencies when we were building an aircraft an hour (at Ford’s Willow Run plant that built B-24s) but that impose unbearable costs when the manufacturing needs to be flexible and adaptive to market changes.  State and Federal rules, along with union agreements, further institutionalized those practices.  To a large degree, remaining the only untouched industrial power emerging from WWII also left us as the only country in the world that was not free to start anew.

Continue reading "Detroit Needs to Move out of WWII" »

December 11, 2008

Rational Expectations Fails (Detroit edition)

Been meaning to say something about the theory of "rational expectations" for a while.  I've alluded to it in discussing Taleb's work, but haven't made a direct comment myself.  Yet the discussion of the proposed Detroit bailout.  (And let's be honest, a bailout is what it is.)

Unfortunately, the belief that (to simplify things) that we are all rational, and all will always make the decisions that maximize our economic benefit has always been complete bunk.  Yet it underlies all of classical and modern (non-behavioral) economics and drives much economic policy.

I was reminded of this last night, while discussing the arguments against a Detroit bailout being put forth by Republicans right now.  Whether you favor the current proposal or not, only a person who is completely out of touch would make some of these statements.  Essentially, those favoring a bankruptcy are saying that consumers won't flock away from GM vehicles in bankruptcy, so long as the government or some other agency steps in to ensure the warranties of the vehicles in question.  Rationally, people shouldn't care.

Now, leaving aside how a government agency is going to ensure that I can get parts for my two year-old Chevy after the plant closes, do you know anybody who thinks this way?

Apparently senators do.  They've taken the research suggesting that most people won't buy cars from bankrupt manufacturers and extrapolated out the "rational" reason for this: people are concerned about service and warranties.  Deal with that very rational concern, and you will solve the problem.

The world would be a lot simpler if people were rational   Last night the bartender put it really simply:  "Do you know anybody who's going to want to pick up his girlfriend in his brand new car made by a  bankrupt company?" he asked.

And that's what's at the crux of this.  Maybe living in the heart of SoCal car culture I see this more clearly than senators in their cheauffered limousines in Washington.  But it's not rocket science.  All it takes is a willingness to concede that cars are -- for better or worse -- status symbols in our society.  Bankruptcy is a stigma.  You don't buy yourself status with a bankrupt nameplate.  A solvent Honda beats out a bankrupt Cadillac in the status department.  End of story.

But things like status are "irrational" so they don't get considered, regardless of how important they are.  "Rational expecations" wins, reality loses.

There is only one thing I know for sure.  If GM is forced into a chapter 11 filing, they might as well shut down the profitable Cadillac division the day it happens, because any luster it ever had will be gone.  Their vehicles, no matter how good they are, will be branded as "loser" cars for decades to come.  Only soccer moms, accountants and those who don't mind telling the world they can't afford anything else need apply as customers.  And more than likely, as a seller of "loser" cars, GM will die.  There aren't enough guys like my grandfather buying cars anymore.

-btc

December 01, 2008

Domain now moved

The BelowTheCrowd domain now points to this site, hosted at Typepad.  The old Belowthecrowd hosting site will go away soon.

I'll be slowly migrating some of the links and pictures over here to keep history consistent.  In the meantime, I'll be able to write a lot more.

-btc

November 27, 2008

Old posts imported

I've noticed, of course, that the photo links are all broken.  Going to have to fix all those in the coming days and weeks.  Fortunately, not too many of them going back over the years, but enough to be a pain.  I suspect that some other links will be broken as well.  Bear with me here.

-btc

November 25, 2008

Moving to TypePad

I've given up on dealing with my own hosting of Moveable Type for this blog. Dealing with the hassles of the installation, upgrades, spam filtering, etc. has been more work than I've been able to deal with, and has really kept me from commenting as quickly and easily as I'd like.

Not to mention that my hosts at H2Hosting.com have turned out to be difficult to deal with, have invoiced me late and inconsistently, have lost connectivity fairly regularly and generally have made this less than fun.

TypePad makes it relatively easy to transition stuff over, though some of the photo links will get broken in the process. I'll probably also take the opportunity to edit down some of the history.

For now, the new site is coming together at http://belowthecrowd.typepad.com. It'll have a slightly cleaner look but for now will feature similar graphics and headings. I'll probably clean those up over time as well. Advertising will also change, as I don't really feel like going with a completely custom template in order to support AdSense.

After the transition, this domain will point directly to the new home and this site will just go away.

I hope that by doing this, I'll actually be able to focus my energy on quickly and easily blogging rather than on dealing with technical and formatting issues.

-btc

November 19, 2008

Well, That Sucked!

No, I'm not talking about the markets.

And I'm not even talking about the phone interview I had a few hours ago that I think I blew completely.

I'm talking about trying to make a simple set of password changes to my various domain names, and thereby immobilizing this Movable Type installation for weeks until I could figure out what I had wrong. In fact, I'm still not sure I know what was wrong, but replace enough files and eventually you get the bad one with the bad password replaced.

And most likely, this blog will either go away or move to a different system when this current hosting agreement expires.

More tomorrow.

-btc

October 15, 2008

Market Implosion Notes

Well, things continue to implode, or re-implode. I suspect that we found something of a bottom around DOW 7700 last week and would be a cautious buyer of select stocks and funds as we approach it again. Rare to see a re-test quite so soon, but just about everything we've seen lately is rare.

  • Dylan Ratigan on FastMoney is straight to the point today. Confidence is not going to come back until the politicians who have created the environment which has failed are taken to task. Sadly, we have the absurd situation where the same politicians and institutions that either directly created or at the very least allowed the situation to develop are being called upon to solve it. Many of them are just broken records, "solving" the problem with more and more debt, which is what caused it in the first place.
  • And let's be clear that this is not a Republican or Democrat issue. The difference between the two is where they tried to direct the huge flood of easy money that their common policies created. The Democrats wanted it sprinkled on housing assistance for the poor, on ACORN, and on support for old-line union-heavy employers. Republicans wanted as much of it as possible to head to Wall Street and to incompetent greedy managements. And of course, both sides wanted to spend it on a variety of government programs with the distinction being which programs, not whether the money really existed or could be spent. Nobody stood up and said "40-1 leverage is a bad idea." Nobody asked "why are we allowing trillion-dollar markets to develop with no regulation at all?" The only argument was where to spend the money. That continues to be the only argument. And that is why there is no confidence.
  • Of course, all this might have been avoided if the government had allowed even one large institution to fail 10 or 15 or 20 years ago. The message would have been sent. Instead, we find ourselves in a situation where the insitutions have grown so out of control that even a single failure turns into a disaster.
  • I continue to believe that the only way out of this is going to be printing money, and am slowly accumulating hard assets, but am mindful of the fact that a global slowdown means that many hard assets will face pricing pressure in the immediate term. Gold and silver, in that order, are my preferences right now. I expect that over time silver will outperform but at present it's getting killed by the fact that it is at least partially perceived as an industrial metal.

Continue reading "Market Implosion Notes" »

October 05, 2008

Slow Weekend

Been a slow month or so and I've been spending time on a lot of things that I enjoy. As things stand right now, the economy sucks, job market is awful, and stock market going nowhere but down (though I suspect that could change for a while). So I've gotten the camera out, among other things.

  • It's spider season in the neighborhood and while they are incredibly difficult to photograph due to focus and depth of field issues compounded by webs swaying in the breeze, the good ones are very rewarding.

    This is a local orb-weaving spider:

    This is another one just a few feet away. This homeowner apparently appreciates the benefits of having bugs to eat the bugs that bite you. Spiders, of course, really don't bite people unless provoked. After a recent flea outbreak, I'm happy to have spiders around.

  • Some people think I'm nuts to spend money on good quality filters, even when the only purpose is lens protection. I think this illustrates why:

    A cheap filter with thin cheap glass and a lightweight alumninum ring would not have protected the front of my lens from this impact. The B+W with its thick brass ring and heavier Schott glass did. That saved me a repair bill that would have certainly exceeded $500. An extra $20-40 for a better quality protective filter is worth it to me.


Continue reading "Slow Weekend" »

August 10, 2008

Brief Recovery Notes

I must be recovering, I seem to want to write again. And hopefully a bit more coherently than my first entry today. As I look back on that one, I'm struck by the dissonance and lack of a straight direct point. Maybe my random musings don't make for good posts.

Anyway:

  • Just posted this one on Cody's Blog about women's shoes. Not sure it'll get approved, so preserved here for posterity:

    Gotta agree on this one. I think 99% of women’s fashion is just the women showing off to each other. Most of us guys don’t know and don’t care about the differences between the $20 version and the $2000 version. I can't think of any time the guys in the locker room ever talked about her shoes, or noticed them even.

    Hell, most of us are really only familiar with two types of womens’ clothing: The ones she’s wearing, and the ones tossed on the floor somewhere between the living room and the bedroom. The latter, of course, are far more desirable.

    Me, I tend to like a woman who knows how to look good in the environment she’s in. And since my own preferred environment tends to be isolated river canyons and mountaintops, I will rarely if ever find a woman looking good in heels. But a woman whose hair is still wet from washing it in the river, wearing an improvised wraparound sarong, loose t-shirt and Chacos as the sun sets at the end of a long day is possibly the most beatiful thing I’ll ever see.

    Shouldn’t have let her go…

  • Wow, now that Tom Brokaw is semi-retired, he actually is asking some tough questions. Why wasn't anybody doing this when the credit bubble was being inflated two or three years ago? Oh, that's right, they were enjoying the increased values of their condos in Manhattan and houses in the Hamptons...

  • The old Dell Desktop finally died. Still able to do a bit of work on it but it dies about every 15 minutes. I suspect one of the two striped/RAID disks in there is physically damaged. Ordered a new one, which is supposed to ship later this week, but if Dell is able to get it out as quickly as they usually do, it should be here pretty shortly. Avoided doing any RAID type stuff this time, just two big disks, plus (I suspect) one leftover from the current system once I pull it apart and run diagnostics on them. And I guess I'll have to finally figure out Vista.

    Hopefully this will also solve some of the weird video issues on the old one.

  • One of the weird things about buying this computer is that Dell (actually CIT (NYSE:CIT) offered me $10,000 in credit on the spot towards this $1,200 purchase. I thought we were in a credit crunch? And it's not like my company has done much in a couple of years. Yes, the corporate structure is still there and I still have a credit card with $5,000 in available credit on it, but I would have expected a bit more investigation.

Continue reading "Brief Recovery Notes" »

Stuff That Doesn't Matter

Here's a "flip it" for Cody:

A Midwestern friend of mine passes on the following exchange, overheard in a local coffee shop today. His title was "Holy shit people are getting dumber"

20something Guy reading a trivia question:

What U.N member nation has a flag with distinct designs on each side?

20something Girl:

What is the U.N.?

The flip it position is that they're not getting dumber, just focused on the things that matter.

The UN as it exists today is a vestige of the cold war, looking for relevance in a world that no longer works the way the UN's designers thought it would or should. (Not that it ever really did. The reality of how the UN worked and the things it did was far, far away from the idealistic vision Eleanor Roosevelt started with.)

A things stand, it's pretty irrelevant today except as a historical oddity.

It's another example of how old things don't usually go away, they just stop mattering. The Catholic Church once ruled the world. It didn't go away, it just stopped mattering very much.

Likewise the French, Portugese, Dutch and other Colonial empires.

One can add to this list such future things that won't matter, such as all of today's paper currencies, the actions of the Fed and (someday, can't happen soon enough) the supply of crude oil.

History is full of institutions and actitvities that mattered a lot once (or at least seemed to), but which don't anymore. Sadly, many of these still consume time and effort that could be better directed towards actually accomplishing something, rather than just consuming a huge chunk of East Side Manhattan real estate and giving corrupt third-world officials exuses to flaunt NYC traffic and parking rules.

Did you realize that the US and Russia have been engaged in setting the framework for a new round of Strategic Arms Reduction Talks? Didn't those die sometime during the Reagan Administration? Nope, still there, they just don't matter very much except to a few people who are involved in such things and think the rest of us should care.

And most people ignore them, as they probably should.

Just like the UN.

-btc