Financial Markets

December 12, 2008

Detroit Needs to Move out of WWII

The following was a response to Ryan Kreuger's comment on Minyanville, in which he wondered why it was going to take Detroit two years to retool a factory, when Honda can switch a factory from production of one model to another in a matter of days:

Just read your buzz and note that you are one of the few I’ve read in the financial press that has come close to addressing the core issue of what ails Detroit.

The US auto business, like many of our “old industry” derived much of their organizational structure and approach from the practices that were forced on them during WWII.  During that conflict we learned the lesson of keeping things simple and uniform.  That was the key to the previously unimaginable level of productivity we achieved during that conflict.  By building purpose-specific factories to manufacture aircraft, tanks, trucks and guns  whose designs rarely ever changed, we were able to build more of them more quickly and efficiently than anybody had before or has since.

There was no need to be flexible.  Maximum production was the goal.  We overwhelmed the capabilities of our enemies whose factories made changes (how many versions of Tiger tank did the Germans make???), whose products improved but became less and less maintainable due to differences between versions and whose workforces were necessarily more flexible and capable in many ways, but who were less focused.

The kind of operation that we ran here during the war works well when the customer’s goal is to build as many as possible as quickly and efficiently as possible, when there is no competitive supplier, when product improvements are deemed to be an unaffordable luxury even if the cost is in actual lives  (a decision that was made with the Sherman tank, for example), and when the factory is always operating at 100% capacity because the customer has agreed to purchase everything you can produce.  In the real world of business, those are unusual circumstances, but virtually all of US big industry and labor was reorganized around them during the WWII and early cold war years.  Many of them have still never abandoned those principles.

There was no need for workers' skills to be varied or for ongoing training because they too could be far more efficient doing the exact same things thousands of times than by learning new skills regularly.  We developed labor structures and rigid work rules to protect those “specialized” workers who were possibly the most efficient in the world at their specific tasks despite being some of the highest paid, yet who were clearly also the least capable of going out and finding a job doing anything else.

This overall focus on the benefit of maximum steady-state efficiency came to dominate the practices of the largest purchaser of goods and services – The US Government -- and thus has been injected relentlessly into the workings of every major government supplier.  Ever seen the paperwork needed to become a government supplier?  It’s all about doing all those things that worked so well at generating efficiencies when we were building an aircraft an hour (at Ford’s Willow Run plant that built B-24s) but that impose unbearable costs when the manufacturing needs to be flexible and adaptive to market changes.  State and Federal rules, along with union agreements, further institutionalized those practices.  To a large degree, remaining the only untouched industrial power emerging from WWII also left us as the only country in the world that was not free to start anew.

Continue reading "Detroit Needs to Move out of WWII" »

December 11, 2008

Rational Expectations Fails (Detroit edition)

Been meaning to say something about the theory of "rational expectations" for a while.  I've alluded to it in discussing Taleb's work, but haven't made a direct comment myself.  Yet the discussion of the proposed Detroit bailout.  (And let's be honest, a bailout is what it is.)

Unfortunately, the belief that (to simplify things) that we are all rational, and all will always make the decisions that maximize our economic benefit has always been complete bunk.  Yet it underlies all of classical and modern (non-behavioral) economics and drives much economic policy.

I was reminded of this last night, while discussing the arguments against a Detroit bailout being put forth by Republicans right now.  Whether you favor the current proposal or not, only a person who is completely out of touch would make some of these statements.  Essentially, those favoring a bankruptcy are saying that consumers won't flock away from GM vehicles in bankruptcy, so long as the government or some other agency steps in to ensure the warranties of the vehicles in question.  Rationally, people shouldn't care.

Now, leaving aside how a government agency is going to ensure that I can get parts for my two year-old Chevy after the plant closes, do you know anybody who thinks this way?

Apparently senators do.  They've taken the research suggesting that most people won't buy cars from bankrupt manufacturers and extrapolated out the "rational" reason for this: people are concerned about service and warranties.  Deal with that very rational concern, and you will solve the problem.

The world would be a lot simpler if people were rational   Last night the bartender put it really simply:  "Do you know anybody who's going to want to pick up his girlfriend in his brand new car made by a  bankrupt company?" he asked.

And that's what's at the crux of this.  Maybe living in the heart of SoCal car culture I see this more clearly than senators in their cheauffered limousines in Washington.  But it's not rocket science.  All it takes is a willingness to concede that cars are -- for better or worse -- status symbols in our society.  Bankruptcy is a stigma.  You don't buy yourself status with a bankrupt nameplate.  A solvent Honda beats out a bankrupt Cadillac in the status department.  End of story.

But things like status are "irrational" so they don't get considered, regardless of how important they are.  "Rational expecations" wins, reality loses.

There is only one thing I know for sure.  If GM is forced into a chapter 11 filing, they might as well shut down the profitable Cadillac division the day it happens, because any luster it ever had will be gone.  Their vehicles, no matter how good they are, will be branded as "loser" cars for decades to come.  Only soccer moms, accountants and those who don't mind telling the world they can't afford anything else need apply as customers.  And more than likely, as a seller of "loser" cars, GM will die.  There aren't enough guys like my grandfather buying cars anymore.

-btc

December 04, 2008

No Mo' Larry, in this house anyway...

No_larry Because CNBC, in their infinite stupidity, are giving us more of him.  Not sure who's sick or on vacation and why they can't fill in with somebody who has at least a shred of journalistic credibility, but we are getting Larry now for two hours a day in the morning, then another hour during his regular show in the afternoon.

That's three hours of endless bullying and droning on, making essentially the same three points he's made for his entire professional life, as far as I can tell.  More dogma masquerading as news, more lobbying for his buddies pretending the be thoughtful commentary.

But unless he manages to insert himself into someplace new that I can't avoid, I will not be commenting on anything he says anymore.  There's a new rule around here: Larry Kudlow comes on, CNBC goes off. 

I can't flatter myself to think that my own practice will change any minds (if there are any) at CNBC.  But maybe if a bunch of people do it, somebody might notice that their cable rankings take a dive every time this propagandist charlatan comes on.

So, if you're reading this and you regularly have CNBC on during the day, follow my lead.  Turn Larry off!  Switch to Bloomberg.  Hell, even Fox Business is better than listening to that one-track idealogue (sorry Cody, but other than your show, FBN really doesn't do much for me...)

-btc

December 02, 2008

Why Won't Anybody Call Larry Kudlow the Hypocrite He Is?

Larry is once again calling the lowering of energy prices a "mustard seed" of recovery that is being ignored by the markets.

When my occasional correspondant Doug Kass pointed out that the $360b savings on energy are trumped by the trillions of lost equity in homes and stocks, Larry (followed up by moron Dennis Kneale) essentially said that assets and incomes aren't the same thing and shouldn't be mixed.

But a year or so ago, when prices were rising, Larry and his cronies were quick to dismiss oil as an issue, pointing out that our energy consumption per capita had declined since the last oil shock in the 1970s, and that as such those prices were no longer all that relevant.  Besides, they said at the time, the wealth effect from stocks going up was going to trump it.

Now, Larry and his gang are happy to say the exact opposite in order to justify their "never any reason to sell" predisposition.

Why Doug Kass, who is a very critical thinker and a successful investment manager is willing to put up with his crap and not call him out as a hypocrite is beyond me.  He knows that Larry is pulling out any excuse to say that everything is OK, any excuse to promote his own political agenda, and any excuse to suggest that we don't need to do anything because everything is really fine.  Obviously he won't be invited back if he does call him out, but go back to the tapes, pull a Santelli on him.  He has it coming.

-btc

November 20, 2008

Larry Kudlow Sees Mustard Seeds!

I see mustard gas.

All technical levels broken, no real support here until somewhere around S&P 480/Dow 4000. Not saying we'll get all the way there, and it certainly won't be a straight line, but telling average investors that there is evidence of a consumer-led recovery out there is irresponsible BS of the highest order.

When this is all over, he'll be reviled as one of the worst, most dogmatic of the shills and apologists for a financial system run out of control and one of the most dogged defenders of the indefensible so long as it favored his buddies.

He's one of the morons who should have been kicked off the air years ago.

-btc

October 15, 2008

Market Implosion Notes

Well, things continue to implode, or re-implode. I suspect that we found something of a bottom around DOW 7700 last week and would be a cautious buyer of select stocks and funds as we approach it again. Rare to see a re-test quite so soon, but just about everything we've seen lately is rare.

  • Dylan Ratigan on FastMoney is straight to the point today. Confidence is not going to come back until the politicians who have created the environment which has failed are taken to task. Sadly, we have the absurd situation where the same politicians and institutions that either directly created or at the very least allowed the situation to develop are being called upon to solve it. Many of them are just broken records, "solving" the problem with more and more debt, which is what caused it in the first place.
  • And let's be clear that this is not a Republican or Democrat issue. The difference between the two is where they tried to direct the huge flood of easy money that their common policies created. The Democrats wanted it sprinkled on housing assistance for the poor, on ACORN, and on support for old-line union-heavy employers. Republicans wanted as much of it as possible to head to Wall Street and to incompetent greedy managements. And of course, both sides wanted to spend it on a variety of government programs with the distinction being which programs, not whether the money really existed or could be spent. Nobody stood up and said "40-1 leverage is a bad idea." Nobody asked "why are we allowing trillion-dollar markets to develop with no regulation at all?" The only argument was where to spend the money. That continues to be the only argument. And that is why there is no confidence.
  • Of course, all this might have been avoided if the government had allowed even one large institution to fail 10 or 15 or 20 years ago. The message would have been sent. Instead, we find ourselves in a situation where the insitutions have grown so out of control that even a single failure turns into a disaster.
  • I continue to believe that the only way out of this is going to be printing money, and am slowly accumulating hard assets, but am mindful of the fact that a global slowdown means that many hard assets will face pricing pressure in the immediate term. Gold and silver, in that order, are my preferences right now. I expect that over time silver will outperform but at present it's getting killed by the fact that it is at least partially perceived as an industrial metal.

Continue reading "Market Implosion Notes" »

October 06, 2008

Market Notes

Down 800 points at the low. Closing down "only" 300-and-something points viewed by many as a "victory."

Viewed by me as the result of more intervention, or at least rumors of intervention late in the day. Sadly, the reality of the market has been that it has become a huge mechanism for doing nothing more than discounting the rumor-of-the-moment about additional government intervention. And since the primary intervention is in the form of more rules changes, those of us who are not close to the rumor mill have no choice but to get out and sit on the sidelines. There's just no way to successfully play a game where the rules can be changed against you at any time.

That's part of the reason I haven't been writing much lately. Not much point in staying involved right now, and if there's no point in being involved, I'm not particularly motivated to comment either.

  • A few days ago a letter-writer to the LA Times based short-sellers and said something to the effect of "if you big hedge funds like a stock, buy it, if you don't, then don't, no special rules for you!"

    Leaving aside the fact that anybody can short stocks, including him and his pension fund if he has one, we are seeing today that he and others like him should be careful what they wish for. We've seen the results on days like today. With no ability to hedge most stocks, and put options increasingly expensive, those big hedge funds and others are doing exactly what he hoped for: they are not buying. And with less and less short interest out there, there are no short positions to be closed out and buoy the market on harsh down days like today.

  • Going to revisit The De-Financialization of Everything in a seperate post. The recent activity has suggested what the impacts of this will be. I'll explore what it'll mean to businesses, individuals and governments. Needless to say I think the environment we have come to depend on for the past 30 years is now dead. Many stupid businesses will die with it.
  • This piece by Jeff Matthews in August 2007 really was prescient.
  • As was this piece from ten years ago about the firing of John Succo at Lehman, for daring to suggest that “I don’t think that the people running our firm, our equity floor, have any idea of the things that we actually do, of how we hedge, the products that we’re involved with, the amount of risk we take or the lack of risk we actually take.”

-btc

August 11, 2008

The Dell Indicator

I've always had something I've called "The Dell Indicator" for the health and robustness of the computer biz. It's been pretty reliable over time and I just got to check it again this past weekend following the death of my old Precision 360 workstation.

The indicator is simple: If Dell (NasdaqGS:DELL) takes more than one week to complete a custom order on something with the parts fully in stock (per their website), business is pretty good. 4-7 days means business is OK, but not great. 1-3 days and it's pretty weak.

The new T3400 workstation I ordered after-hours on Thursday shipped first thing this morning, meaning it was probably completed sometime over the weekend. Even assuming a worst case, which is that the order wasn't completed until just before it was picked up by FedEx, it's still just under 3 full business days. In reality, I suspect it was finished well before 8:30 this morning.

This is not an off-the-shelf system. I asked for several items to be included that are a bit "weird." They definitely had to custom build it. Which, even with Dell's ongoing improvements in manufacturing times leaves me thinking that demand is a bit weak.

Continue reading "The Dell Indicator" »

August 10, 2008

Brief Recovery Notes

I must be recovering, I seem to want to write again. And hopefully a bit more coherently than my first entry today. As I look back on that one, I'm struck by the dissonance and lack of a straight direct point. Maybe my random musings don't make for good posts.

Anyway:

  • Just posted this one on Cody's Blog about women's shoes. Not sure it'll get approved, so preserved here for posterity:

    Gotta agree on this one. I think 99% of women’s fashion is just the women showing off to each other. Most of us guys don’t know and don’t care about the differences between the $20 version and the $2000 version. I can't think of any time the guys in the locker room ever talked about her shoes, or noticed them even.

    Hell, most of us are really only familiar with two types of womens’ clothing: The ones she’s wearing, and the ones tossed on the floor somewhere between the living room and the bedroom. The latter, of course, are far more desirable.

    Me, I tend to like a woman who knows how to look good in the environment she’s in. And since my own preferred environment tends to be isolated river canyons and mountaintops, I will rarely if ever find a woman looking good in heels. But a woman whose hair is still wet from washing it in the river, wearing an improvised wraparound sarong, loose t-shirt and Chacos as the sun sets at the end of a long day is possibly the most beatiful thing I’ll ever see.

    Shouldn’t have let her go…

  • Wow, now that Tom Brokaw is semi-retired, he actually is asking some tough questions. Why wasn't anybody doing this when the credit bubble was being inflated two or three years ago? Oh, that's right, they were enjoying the increased values of their condos in Manhattan and houses in the Hamptons...

  • The old Dell Desktop finally died. Still able to do a bit of work on it but it dies about every 15 minutes. I suspect one of the two striped/RAID disks in there is physically damaged. Ordered a new one, which is supposed to ship later this week, but if Dell is able to get it out as quickly as they usually do, it should be here pretty shortly. Avoided doing any RAID type stuff this time, just two big disks, plus (I suspect) one leftover from the current system once I pull it apart and run diagnostics on them. And I guess I'll have to finally figure out Vista.

    Hopefully this will also solve some of the weird video issues on the old one.

  • One of the weird things about buying this computer is that Dell (actually CIT (NYSE:CIT) offered me $10,000 in credit on the spot towards this $1,200 purchase. I thought we were in a credit crunch? And it's not like my company has done much in a couple of years. Yes, the corporate structure is still there and I still have a credit card with $5,000 in available credit on it, but I would have expected a bit more investigation.

Continue reading "Brief Recovery Notes" »

August 07, 2008

Olympics Eve Brief Notes

This may be the last time I mention the Olympics. It's been a sham for decades, has nothing to do with getting the world's athletes together in the spirity of peace (if it did, they wouldn't compete under national flags, but as individuals based on their own qualifications), and is mostly designed for governments to tax their people in order to show off to other governments. Fuck them all. I'll be switching away from all NBC properties the next few weeks and getting my news elsewhere. Hope they lose their shirts on this one.

Anyway, back to reality, which the Olympics have virtually nothing to do with:

  • So, the markets were up yesterday because Merrill was finally done with their problems? Guess they forgot how many times Thain has lied to them failed to anticipate future capitalization needs, and this time the market believes it really is over. Yeah. Sure.
  • And they're down today because some of the retailers and AIG are having difficulties? Maybe or maybe not.
  • The government of California is effectively beginning to shut down. And somehow my life hasn't changed anyway. Maybe that says something about the real need for the 40% increase in spending since 2002. My own prediction is that taxpayers will not approve any increases, and the legislature will finally have to seriously address the corrupt pork-barrel crap that brings about these huge increases while seemingly helping nobody.
  • My comments about Vegas from a few weeks ago are hitting home. First major development has just declared bankruptcy. Despite MGM-Mirage's "not as bad as we thought" disaster yesterday, the reality is that the place is overbuilt with luxury vacation condos that nobody wants and nobody will buy. There is only so much of a market for "bling," and it's declining fast, and around the world.

-btc