A few weeks ago I noted that I had encountered the term "Voluntary Simplicity" during an Anderson School-sponsored career options exercise.
The MBA Indicator
I found it interesting at the time that such a concept would even be offered as an option in a gathering of top-10 business school grads. I found it even more interesting that many of them thought it was a topic worth discussing. And I was quite surprised that nobody in the room completely dismissed the concept, thought most of us found the spiritual aspect of the idea to be somewhat unnecessary.That's 12 people, in the most image-conscious city on the planet, all of whom have had significant business success, who in fact went to school to get ahead in business and who are used to 60-70 hour workweeks, all of whom are looking at their lives and thinking that maybe wanting less and having less could be a better way of living.
There's been more and more evidence that this idea could be a force in the economy in the coming years
For some, living more frugally is going to become an inevitable outcome of the end of the credit boom. Those people may be dragged kicking and screaming into the world of living within their means and finding entertainment other than shopping, but they'll influence tastes and fashion for years to come.
As I repeatedly note, my grandfather lived in a world where you were frugal, because you worried about what the neighbors thought. We live in a world in which otherwise-sane people feel compelled to spend on ostentatious items they don't need because -- again -- the neighbors and colleagues might think badly of them otherwise. The neighbors of the coming years are likely to pull us back to frugality and worrying about the thoughts of those underwater neighbors, at least in public.
The Casey Serin Indicator
Mish today notes that we appear to be entering a phase of economic development in which paying $4 for a cup of coffee is no longer seen as necessary or desirable. He may well be right. That Starbucks (NasdaqGS:SBUX) is considering loyalty cards -- something that neighborhood places had to adopt as a way to compete with Starbucks -- says a lot about how soft they think their business could become.To me, the fact that mortgage-fraud poster-child Casey Serin made Starbucks part of his public persona speaks volumes about how much some of us have come to associate conspicuous consumption and expensive brands with our realities. And if Casey Serin latched on to the trend, the trend has got to be over, or at least in its last innings. Incidentally, Casey's other fave trendy brand was Jamba Juice (NasdaqGM:JMBA). Beware.
The Target Indicator
I see signs of this new frugality elsewhere. This weekend I made one of my rare Target (NYSE:TGT) shopping trips to pick up some household goods in larger quantities. My side of town doesn't have a Target, so I have to travel a bit to get to a large mall in a somewhat less affluent area. For the money I save on purchases of soap, detergent, bathroom essentials, paper products and other homewares, it's worth the few miles of driving.One of the benefits of shopping there is that I'm not really their target demographic, so the products I like tend not to be sold out, even though they are often stocked in smaller quantities. So I was surprised to find that almost all the High Efficiency clothing detergents were sold out this weekend, including all the unscented variants.
This is weird. While frontloading machines have been all the rage on my side of town in recent years and despite lots of rebates from the city, at well over $1000 for a basic washer/dryer set, they've been slower to penetrate the less affluent sections of town. The local Target has slowly added HE detergents in the past couple of years, but it's been a slow process and I've never seen them sold out. They're pretty good at judging inventory and demand.
I asked one of the people working there if they had more in stock somewhere, and the answer was pretty simple. Nope, they've been selling out of the stuff quickly in recent weeks. They need to start rebalancing the shelf space to dedicate more room for them, but the change in trend sort of caught them by surprise.
I can think of lots of reasons this might be happenning, but the most obvious explanation to me is that more and more people from my side of town are heading over to Target where basic stuff is cheaper. I don't think many of us are buying our fashion items there, but the savings on basic household brands are too good to miss. Especially in an era of growing frugality.
The Snowbird Indicator
While I love place, Snowbird has never, ever timed a real estate development well. So the fact that they're now selling ultra-luxury, ultra-ostentatious shared-ownership condos is telling to me. The fact that they are apparently not selling well at all is not surprising. Four years ago they would have made this work. Today, I'm not hearing much good about this. Too expensive, too ostentatious, too much like places where people go to show off. It's not working. In the meantime, my much more low-key timeshare development is pretty much at 100% occupancy this entire season.Also, I'm told that these ridiculous things are not selling well. Maybe in Aspen and Beaver Creek. Not in anyplace even remotely normal.
A Disclaimer
I've been downshifting a lot in recent years. Maybe I'm seeing what I want to see. Thoughts?
