Wow, with the mom move this past month, I've been offline for some time. Back for the Fed insanity though.

I entered the day pretty flat, agreeing with my friend Cody that nobody really had any advantage going into this, so there was no point in trying to game it. Glad I did. My own view of the economy, through the prism of watching the local LA condo market and food prices, probably would have had me leaning a bit shorter than normal. As it was, my few select shorts lost money, but it sure wasn't as bad as it might have been if I were short homebuilders and financials!

• In the end, Cody has things right. This is just another example of the government trying to micromanage our lives, and in the end just distorting things, punishing good behavior, and rewarding their friends. A recession would be good. Actual deflation would be even better. For all the fed/banker talk, deflation is good for the end consumer, for savers and for wage earners. It feels awful, but it's when bad debt gets written off, costs fall faster than wages and incomes, money flows away from junk and into more productive use, and the people who lose are the bankers. Inflation and interest rate cuts are the opposite: feel good, but gut the purchasing power of normal people to the benefit of lenders and (ultimately) government. Down with central banks!
• Cramer has really been a charlatan through this whole episode. I've found him much more tolerable lately than I did in the past, but today I had to shut off the TV. Last week, when he commented on what might happen, he laid out the case for anything the fed doing being bad, suggesting that a 50bps cut could only be justified if the fed saw some real problems, which should be a concern for investors. Today, with the market up over 300 points (thus proving his trading game plan wrong), he's talking like the 50bps cut was a brilliant move, and dismissing all the concerns he expressed himself last week. I can deal with a guy who gets it wrong. I hate guys who get it wrong and act like they were right all along.
• Would not be surprised if we got a pullback, and would use it to add a few global-growth names, but would not do more. Also would not be surprised at no pullback, in which case I'm unlikely to do very much of anything.

Good to be back

-btc