As Toddo often states over on the 'Ville, there is loss and then there is loss.

Also important to remember that there is risk, and then there is risk. Those of us in the financial markets are often focused to the point of distraction on controlling the first of these. But the second deserves at least a bit of our attention and concern, no matter where we live or what the risk we face happens to be.

So as my attention turns from financial news to the evening news, let me use this soapbox to recommend that everybody take a few moments away from the markets to peruse:

FEMA Citizen Disaster Preparedness
Equipped to Survive (more advanced information from my friend Doug Ritter)
Basic preparedness and First Aid courses

And no, I never was a boy scout.

-btc

Last month I flew to New York with two weeks' notice. I flew Delta and the cost was above $400.

Shortly after Labor day, I'll take the same flights, on the same day of the week and the cost is $246. Even with less notice, the cost is still lower than a month ago, at $326.

The ideas from MIM2 continue to percolate more than a week later. My earlier reference of an article from today's LA Times got me thinking to a conversation I recently had with a friend, as well as the concept of matching one's risk to one's timeframe.

My friend is a guy I know from biz school, with an MBA in finance and a lot of practical experience. He and his wife just bought their first home. To do it, they had to take on three separate loans: A primary mortgage (adjustable - 3 year), a second mortgage (adjustable - 1 year) and a line of credit to finance some needed upgrades (also adjustable, don't recall the details).

Must Have Been a Contortionist

From today's LA Times, page A3

When Will They Ever Learn
"If you paid your mortgage off, it means you probably did not manage your funds efficiently over the years," said David Lereah, chief economist of the National Association of Realtors and author of "Are You Missing the Real Estate Boom?" "It's as if you had 500,000 dollar bills stuffed in your mattress."

Five years ago, people were buying stocks because analysts paid for by the stock issuers' investment bankers said they were a sure thing. Today, we're supposed to buy houses and leverage them to 100% because the "economist" who is bought and paid for by the National Association of Realtors says were stupid if we actually decide to save money in the form of equity in our homes (historically, the major source of most people's retirement savings). The guy in this article is right, he will never be able to retire. And he might not own his "piggy bank" forever either.

As discussed at MIM2 last week, the concept of risk is still not realistically factored into any market, or into life in general. I continue to believe that a rude awakening will await many people, who believe they will always be able to find a way to live a lifestyle not supported by their actual incomes.

Downgrading to a four-cylinder Acura was one of the smarter energy plays in the past few years, even though I still need to go to a Honda or Acura dealer to get basic spare parts.

Walked around Venice Beach with Laurie and Lisa after a thoroughly mediocre breakfast at Shutters the other morning, and noticed this commentary on the current state of the world trade balance lurking right below the crowd's feet:

These are now replacing the slightly older version:

But the evidence below the crowd's feet suggests that it's still not economically feasible to import cast concrete parts:

This is the state of the world.

-btc

At Ojai, I found myself explaining the purpose of this blog to several people. The explanation goes something like this:

When I started the blog, I had a very clear idea of what I was going to comment on and which other people would be involved. As it turns out, the other people didn't really participate past the first week and the market is unforgiving. There's been relatively little new about technology or its influence on markets in the past six months and my commentary has reflected that fact. I suspect that over time, there will be good reason to refocus on the things I initially sought to cover. In the meantime, you get my far less informed thoughts about all sorts of other things. Enjoy, and feel free to rip me to shreds if I'm talking out of my ass. Hopefully I'll learn something and so will you.

The return from Ojai
Minyans in the Mountains was a fantastic experience, many new friends and experiences. And after extending the experience by hosting Laurie and Lisa in L.A., I'm still hung over. I'll have seperate commentary later.

Still No Inflation
But my local coffee place has raised prices 5-10% in my absence. Explanation? It's costing more to get everything delivered. Attempts to hold the line on price increases by increasing revenue from wireless internet and cutting back on non-essentials have not been sufficient.

Cat Relationships
Are a major pain. Things have settled down a bit between BTCat I and BTCat II. (Major props to cat-sitter Marie for dealing with them in my absence!) But hissing and snarling still breaks out. Tomorrow they're both off to the vet.

No Inflation
But my local beer and burgers place (OK, it's more than that) has raised prices on the menu for the second time this year and are cutting back on some things. My local coffee place has not changed prices much, but is now charging for wireless internet, which used to be free. One of the owner/managers explained that the cost of everything is going up and they're trying to hold the line on price increases by charging for some of the "extras."

Auto Parts Stores Still a Joke
I still can't get a windshield wiper blade to fit a current model Honda Accord from any of these jokers. But yesterday I had to drive around to three different stores just to get the various items I needed to clean and wax my car. And nobody stocks that basic great stuff -- cheesecloth -- anymore. I got it at a supermarket. In fact, I got most of the stuff (other than the Meguilar's wax) at a supermarket. I really don't know what the future is for these guys.

So Now Delta is Going Bankrupt Too?
Big surprise. I never finished penning the promised commentary on my recent experience with (among others) them. All I can say is good riddance. Time to let them fail and let the chips fall where they may. Eventually a world will emerge with much less capacity, where not everybody can afford a trip to New York for the weekend, and where airlines can be profitable. For those who thought ultra-cheap airfares were a birthright, I'm sorry.

Boing!
The above is clearly a negative for Boeing, no matter what justification the analysts pull out of their asses to justify continued expansion of the civilian fleet.

Cat Conundrum
Whatever allergic reaction I had presumed to be related to the arrival of BTCat II was either a temporary thing or a pure coincidence. Now, it's time for the long road towards reconcilliation and maybe even friendship between felines. Things seem to be calming down, but still at least one cat fight per day.

Off To Ojai
I'll be joining the Minyans in the Mountains, starting tomorrow and may have some comments coming out of that sure-to-be fantastic conference.

Overstuck
I've had some words over at Jeff Matthews' blog about Overstock.com (NasdaqNM:OSTK). I find these long/short battles to be fascinating and as I told one "fan" of mine by email yesterday, it seems that both sides are so adamant in the correctness of their position that they're willing to ignore huge amounts of public information. I continue to watch this fantastic theater from the sidelines, partly out of sheer boredom, partly because it kills me to sit by while people make allegations and assertions about issues for which there are solid facts available in the public domain. And for the record, I think the CEO is a looney, but wouldn't touch the stock either way.

H-P to buy Scitex for $230 million
As a veteran -- or maybe that should be refugee -- of HP's personal computing division, I always thought the Compaq merger, and most of the other things that went wrong during the tenure of Carly Fiorina came at the expense of potential growth and acquisitions in other areas. Nice to see that the new CEO is on track to do things that make more sense.

I shouldn't have delved into something as poltically charged as Bob Novak and his problems. This isn't a political blog, and the number of emails I've gotten from the poltically obsessed on both sides of the supposed political spectrum, is just not worth it. So if you're wondering why comments are now closed, that's why.

Can adding a second cat to an already cat-friendly household suddenly cause one to become allergic? Or do I just happen to have a cold at the same time. (For now, betting on a cold. I really do like the guy, though he and Clio still don't get along at all.)

Shortage of jet fuel looming at airports
The energy crunch of 2005 cannot be blamed on any single factor, as this article clearly explains. (Thanks to Jeff Matthews for pointing it out.) Refineries and pipelines have all failed to keep up with demand, and in many ways our political process has made it even worse.

BelowTheCat now has a companion.

She's not really treating him as such, but she'll wise up.

He's actually been here since Sunday, but they just met face-to-face today. Some difficulties ensued.

Hopefully things will settle down over the coming weeks.

Well, sort of contrarian.

If you haven't been living in a cave, you know by now that Bob Novak walked off a CNN set after being offended by something Jim Carville said. CNN has suspended him for his "inexcusible behavior."

Somebody should have done what Novak did years ago. If some people did, TV -- and maybe our society -- would be better off.

Serious, considered dialogue has disappeared from TV, in favor of a bunch of raving lunatics trying to yell over each other to be heard. Novak pioneered this kind of rude behavior for which I'd fire you on the spot if you worked for me and tried it in a meeting. It's a sad commentary on the state of the world that Novak, today, is actually one of the less offensive talk show pundits and hosts.

So yeah. He should have walked out. Anybody who is offended and shouted down should have the decency to say "I won't participate in a conversation if I'm not allowed the courtesy of time to talk." It's ironic that he's the one who did it, but the act itself was warranted. Too bad a lot more people don't have the nerve to do the same thing when they're invited to participate in a discussion then not allowed to do so.

And yes, I'm available to present my views on TV. Only one rule: You give me a chance to answer your question before you open your mouth again. Otherwise, I'll walk out. You've been warned.