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December 2008

December 12, 2008

Detroit Needs to Move out of WWII

The following was a response to Ryan Kreuger's comment on Minyanville, in which he wondered why it was going to take Detroit two years to retool a factory, when Honda can switch a factory from production of one model to another in a matter of days:

Just read your buzz and note that you are one of the few I’ve read in the financial press that has come close to addressing the core issue of what ails Detroit.

The US auto business, like many of our “old industry” derived much of their organizational structure and approach from the practices that were forced on them during WWII.  During that conflict we learned the lesson of keeping things simple and uniform.  That was the key to the previously unimaginable level of productivity we achieved during that conflict.  By building purpose-specific factories to manufacture aircraft, tanks, trucks and guns  whose designs rarely ever changed, we were able to build more of them more quickly and efficiently than anybody had before or has since.

There was no need to be flexible.  Maximum production was the goal.  We overwhelmed the capabilities of our enemies whose factories made changes (how many versions of Tiger tank did the Germans make???), whose products improved but became less and less maintainable due to differences between versions and whose workforces were necessarily more flexible and capable in many ways, but who were less focused.

The kind of operation that we ran here during the war works well when the customer’s goal is to build as many as possible as quickly and efficiently as possible, when there is no competitive supplier, when product improvements are deemed to be an unaffordable luxury even if the cost is in actual lives  (a decision that was made with the Sherman tank, for example), and when the factory is always operating at 100% capacity because the customer has agreed to purchase everything you can produce.  In the real world of business, those are unusual circumstances, but virtually all of US big industry and labor was reorganized around them during the WWII and early cold war years.  Many of them have still never abandoned those principles.

There was no need for workers' skills to be varied or for ongoing training because they too could be far more efficient doing the exact same things thousands of times than by learning new skills regularly.  We developed labor structures and rigid work rules to protect those “specialized” workers who were possibly the most efficient in the world at their specific tasks despite being some of the highest paid, yet who were clearly also the least capable of going out and finding a job doing anything else.

This overall focus on the benefit of maximum steady-state efficiency came to dominate the practices of the largest purchaser of goods and services – The US Government -- and thus has been injected relentlessly into the workings of every major government supplier.  Ever seen the paperwork needed to become a government supplier?  It’s all about doing all those things that worked so well at generating efficiencies when we were building an aircraft an hour (at Ford’s Willow Run plant that built B-24s) but that impose unbearable costs when the manufacturing needs to be flexible and adaptive to market changes.  State and Federal rules, along with union agreements, further institutionalized those practices.  To a large degree, remaining the only untouched industrial power emerging from WWII also left us as the only country in the world that was not free to start anew.

Continue reading "Detroit Needs to Move out of WWII" »

December 11, 2008

Rational Expectations Fails (Detroit edition)

Been meaning to say something about the theory of "rational expectations" for a while.  I've alluded to it in discussing Taleb's work, but haven't made a direct comment myself.  Yet the discussion of the proposed Detroit bailout.  (And let's be honest, a bailout is what it is.)

Unfortunately, the belief that (to simplify things) that we are all rational, and all will always make the decisions that maximize our economic benefit has always been complete bunk.  Yet it underlies all of classical and modern (non-behavioral) economics and drives much economic policy.

I was reminded of this last night, while discussing the arguments against a Detroit bailout being put forth by Republicans right now.  Whether you favor the current proposal or not, only a person who is completely out of touch would make some of these statements.  Essentially, those favoring a bankruptcy are saying that consumers won't flock away from GM vehicles in bankruptcy, so long as the government or some other agency steps in to ensure the warranties of the vehicles in question.  Rationally, people shouldn't care.

Now, leaving aside how a government agency is going to ensure that I can get parts for my two year-old Chevy after the plant closes, do you know anybody who thinks this way?

Apparently senators do.  They've taken the research suggesting that most people won't buy cars from bankrupt manufacturers and extrapolated out the "rational" reason for this: people are concerned about service and warranties.  Deal with that very rational concern, and you will solve the problem.

The world would be a lot simpler if people were rational   Last night the bartender put it really simply:  "Do you know anybody who's going to want to pick up his girlfriend in his brand new car made by a  bankrupt company?" he asked.

And that's what's at the crux of this.  Maybe living in the heart of SoCal car culture I see this more clearly than senators in their cheauffered limousines in Washington.  But it's not rocket science.  All it takes is a willingness to concede that cars are -- for better or worse -- status symbols in our society.  Bankruptcy is a stigma.  You don't buy yourself status with a bankrupt nameplate.  A solvent Honda beats out a bankrupt Cadillac in the status department.  End of story.

But things like status are "irrational" so they don't get considered, regardless of how important they are.  "Rational expecations" wins, reality loses.

There is only one thing I know for sure.  If GM is forced into a chapter 11 filing, they might as well shut down the profitable Cadillac division the day it happens, because any luster it ever had will be gone.  Their vehicles, no matter how good they are, will be branded as "loser" cars for decades to come.  Only soccer moms, accountants and those who don't mind telling the world they can't afford anything else need apply as customers.  And more than likely, as a seller of "loser" cars, GM will die.  There aren't enough guys like my grandfather buying cars anymore.

-btc

December 04, 2008

No Mo' Larry, in this house anyway...

No_larry Because CNBC, in their infinite stupidity, are giving us more of him.  Not sure who's sick or on vacation and why they can't fill in with somebody who has at least a shred of journalistic credibility, but we are getting Larry now for two hours a day in the morning, then another hour during his regular show in the afternoon.

That's three hours of endless bullying and droning on, making essentially the same three points he's made for his entire professional life, as far as I can tell.  More dogma masquerading as news, more lobbying for his buddies pretending the be thoughtful commentary.

But unless he manages to insert himself into someplace new that I can't avoid, I will not be commenting on anything he says anymore.  There's a new rule around here: Larry Kudlow comes on, CNBC goes off. 

I can't flatter myself to think that my own practice will change any minds (if there are any) at CNBC.  But maybe if a bunch of people do it, somebody might notice that their cable rankings take a dive every time this propagandist charlatan comes on.

So, if you're reading this and you regularly have CNBC on during the day, follow my lead.  Turn Larry off!  Switch to Bloomberg.  Hell, even Fox Business is better than listening to that one-track idealogue (sorry Cody, but other than your show, FBN really doesn't do much for me...)

-btc

December 02, 2008

Why Won't Anybody Call Larry Kudlow the Hypocrite He Is?

Larry is once again calling the lowering of energy prices a "mustard seed" of recovery that is being ignored by the markets.

When my occasional correspondant Doug Kass pointed out that the $360b savings on energy are trumped by the trillions of lost equity in homes and stocks, Larry (followed up by moron Dennis Kneale) essentially said that assets and incomes aren't the same thing and shouldn't be mixed.

But a year or so ago, when prices were rising, Larry and his cronies were quick to dismiss oil as an issue, pointing out that our energy consumption per capita had declined since the last oil shock in the 1970s, and that as such those prices were no longer all that relevant.  Besides, they said at the time, the wealth effect from stocks going up was going to trump it.

Now, Larry and his gang are happy to say the exact opposite in order to justify their "never any reason to sell" predisposition.

Why Doug Kass, who is a very critical thinker and a successful investment manager is willing to put up with his crap and not call him out as a hypocrite is beyond me.  He knows that Larry is pulling out any excuse to say that everything is OK, any excuse to promote his own political agenda, and any excuse to suggest that we don't need to do anything because everything is really fine.  Obviously he won't be invited back if he does call him out, but go back to the tapes, pull a Santelli on him.  He has it coming.

-btc

December 01, 2008

Domain now moved

The BelowTheCrowd domain now points to this site, hosted at Typepad.  The old Belowthecrowd hosting site will go away soon.

I'll be slowly migrating some of the links and pictures over here to keep history consistent.  In the meantime, I'll be able to write a lot more.

-btc