« July 2008 | Main | October 2008 »

August 2008

August 11, 2008

The Dell Indicator

I've always had something I've called "The Dell Indicator" for the health and robustness of the computer biz. It's been pretty reliable over time and I just got to check it again this past weekend following the death of my old Precision 360 workstation.

The indicator is simple: If Dell (NasdaqGS:DELL) takes more than one week to complete a custom order on something with the parts fully in stock (per their website), business is pretty good. 4-7 days means business is OK, but not great. 1-3 days and it's pretty weak.

The new T3400 workstation I ordered after-hours on Thursday shipped first thing this morning, meaning it was probably completed sometime over the weekend. Even assuming a worst case, which is that the order wasn't completed until just before it was picked up by FedEx, it's still just under 3 full business days. In reality, I suspect it was finished well before 8:30 this morning.

This is not an off-the-shelf system. I asked for several items to be included that are a bit "weird." They definitely had to custom build it. Which, even with Dell's ongoing improvements in manufacturing times leaves me thinking that demand is a bit weak.

Continue reading "The Dell Indicator" »

August 10, 2008

Brief Recovery Notes

I must be recovering, I seem to want to write again. And hopefully a bit more coherently than my first entry today. As I look back on that one, I'm struck by the dissonance and lack of a straight direct point. Maybe my random musings don't make for good posts.

Anyway:

  • Just posted this one on Cody's Blog about women's shoes. Not sure it'll get approved, so preserved here for posterity:

    Gotta agree on this one. I think 99% of women’s fashion is just the women showing off to each other. Most of us guys don’t know and don’t care about the differences between the $20 version and the $2000 version. I can't think of any time the guys in the locker room ever talked about her shoes, or noticed them even.

    Hell, most of us are really only familiar with two types of womens’ clothing: The ones she’s wearing, and the ones tossed on the floor somewhere between the living room and the bedroom. The latter, of course, are far more desirable.

    Me, I tend to like a woman who knows how to look good in the environment she’s in. And since my own preferred environment tends to be isolated river canyons and mountaintops, I will rarely if ever find a woman looking good in heels. But a woman whose hair is still wet from washing it in the river, wearing an improvised wraparound sarong, loose t-shirt and Chacos as the sun sets at the end of a long day is possibly the most beatiful thing I’ll ever see.

    Shouldn’t have let her go…

  • Wow, now that Tom Brokaw is semi-retired, he actually is asking some tough questions. Why wasn't anybody doing this when the credit bubble was being inflated two or three years ago? Oh, that's right, they were enjoying the increased values of their condos in Manhattan and houses in the Hamptons...

  • The old Dell Desktop finally died. Still able to do a bit of work on it but it dies about every 15 minutes. I suspect one of the two striped/RAID disks in there is physically damaged. Ordered a new one, which is supposed to ship later this week, but if Dell is able to get it out as quickly as they usually do, it should be here pretty shortly. Avoided doing any RAID type stuff this time, just two big disks, plus (I suspect) one leftover from the current system once I pull it apart and run diagnostics on them. And I guess I'll have to finally figure out Vista.

    Hopefully this will also solve some of the weird video issues on the old one.

  • One of the weird things about buying this computer is that Dell (actually CIT (NYSE:CIT) offered me $10,000 in credit on the spot towards this $1,200 purchase. I thought we were in a credit crunch? And it's not like my company has done much in a couple of years. Yes, the corporate structure is still there and I still have a credit card with $5,000 in available credit on it, but I would have expected a bit more investigation.

Continue reading "Brief Recovery Notes" »

Stuff That Doesn't Matter

Here's a "flip it" for Cody:

A Midwestern friend of mine passes on the following exchange, overheard in a local coffee shop today. His title was "Holy shit people are getting dumber"

20something Guy reading a trivia question:

What U.N member nation has a flag with distinct designs on each side?

20something Girl:

What is the U.N.?

The flip it position is that they're not getting dumber, just focused on the things that matter.

The UN as it exists today is a vestige of the cold war, looking for relevance in a world that no longer works the way the UN's designers thought it would or should. (Not that it ever really did. The reality of how the UN worked and the things it did was far, far away from the idealistic vision Eleanor Roosevelt started with.)

A things stand, it's pretty irrelevant today except as a historical oddity.

It's another example of how old things don't usually go away, they just stop mattering. The Catholic Church once ruled the world. It didn't go away, it just stopped mattering very much.

Likewise the French, Portugese, Dutch and other Colonial empires.

One can add to this list such future things that won't matter, such as all of today's paper currencies, the actions of the Fed and (someday, can't happen soon enough) the supply of crude oil.

History is full of institutions and actitvities that mattered a lot once (or at least seemed to), but which don't anymore. Sadly, many of these still consume time and effort that could be better directed towards actually accomplishing something, rather than just consuming a huge chunk of East Side Manhattan real estate and giving corrupt third-world officials exuses to flaunt NYC traffic and parking rules.

Did you realize that the US and Russia have been engaged in setting the framework for a new round of Strategic Arms Reduction Talks? Didn't those die sometime during the Reagan Administration? Nope, still there, they just don't matter very much except to a few people who are involved in such things and think the rest of us should care.

And most people ignore them, as they probably should.

Just like the UN.

-btc

Something A Little Different

I've been a bit sick for better than a week, trying to work through it. I find that as I get older, some of my youthful abilities, including the ability to keep a completely clear head and work through illness, are diminished. Unfortunately, even this heavy cold/light flu or whatever it is has impaired me sufficiently that I can't do much

Not only that, but I'm unable to get out an exercise. As those who know me well realize, I'm not much of a "stay indoors" kind of person. Even when I work, I try to find the excuses to get out as much as possible. I once described "my ideal work environent" to a career coach as "a place where the windows aren't welded shut and I can actually feel the breeze everyday." Needless to say, that coaching session didn't go much of anywhere.

So, here I am inside. Though obviously with all the windows open and a nice breeze.

Thankfully, I've been sleeping more than usual, which kills some of the time, but otherwise the frustration about everything has been building, as is probably obvious in my last post. I'm feeling a little better today, but don't want to push it, so I'm giving myself one more to recuperate. I have another job discussion tomorrow afternoon, so want to be in good shape for it, even though it's on the phone.

There have been some other frustrations recently. Seriously blew a job interview last Monday. In part, I suspect, because I was already beginning to crash and didn't quite realize it. In part though it's because the IT world has changed and I'm just not a great fit for it anymore. For better or worse, "traditional" IT has become more and more focused on controls rather than on innovation and serious business improvement. I'm a notorious "break all the rules to meet the strategic objectives" guy, so those kinds of roles don't work very well for me, even if I could get somebody to hire me for one of them, which I doubt. My resume is too long a history of "damn the torpedoes, full speed ahead" kind of stuff.

While it was all successful, it's not the kind of stuff that gives me much to say to anybody when asked what methodology, or approach, or other management mumbo-jumbo I favor. I try to answer truthfully: I know lots of ways to get things done. I try to always pick the one that's most appropriate for the circumstances. "Situational Project Management" as I call it. I try to make it sounds better than "I figure out how to deliver and if I leave flattened bodies in my wake, then it's too bad they got in the way," but I don't think I convince anybody that I'm a good fit for most of todays Sarb-Oxed, control-freaked IT environments.

The innovations that are happenning in technology tend to be in areas related to media, which I have almost no understanding of and frankly no interest in. (The little media I actually see tends to be the CNBC stuff I watch during the day, usually with the sound off, mostly because I like having some material to use when making fun of Cramer and friends in this space.)

So I find myself thinking that it's really time to do something different. The question, as always, is "what?"

Certainly, moving out of media-town may be a good idea. And I'm certainly looking elsewhere.

But as noted above, my brain just doesn't do quite as well at certain things as it did when I was younger. Even if I found a cool company that wasn't media related, was doing some interesting stuff with IT, and I could figure out what in the world I might do for them, I'm just not sure I'm up to the task of doing it. And I'm sure that my interest level is at or close to zero. In large part, because I find that most of the energy going into technology at most companies is completely wasted.

Continue reading "Something A Little Different" »

August 07, 2008

Olympics Eve Brief Notes

This may be the last time I mention the Olympics. It's been a sham for decades, has nothing to do with getting the world's athletes together in the spirity of peace (if it did, they wouldn't compete under national flags, but as individuals based on their own qualifications), and is mostly designed for governments to tax their people in order to show off to other governments. Fuck them all. I'll be switching away from all NBC properties the next few weeks and getting my news elsewhere. Hope they lose their shirts on this one.

Anyway, back to reality, which the Olympics have virtually nothing to do with:

  • So, the markets were up yesterday because Merrill was finally done with their problems? Guess they forgot how many times Thain has lied to them failed to anticipate future capitalization needs, and this time the market believes it really is over. Yeah. Sure.
  • And they're down today because some of the retailers and AIG are having difficulties? Maybe or maybe not.
  • The government of California is effectively beginning to shut down. And somehow my life hasn't changed anyway. Maybe that says something about the real need for the 40% increase in spending since 2002. My own prediction is that taxpayers will not approve any increases, and the legislature will finally have to seriously address the corrupt pork-barrel crap that brings about these huge increases while seemingly helping nobody.
  • My comments about Vegas from a few weeks ago are hitting home. First major development has just declared bankruptcy. Despite MGM-Mirage's "not as bad as we thought" disaster yesterday, the reality is that the place is overbuilt with luxury vacation condos that nobody wants and nobody will buy. There is only so much of a market for "bling," and it's declining fast, and around the world.

-btc